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The Financial Markets Association

Analyst: Danzandagva.D

E-mail: info@fma.mn

Web: http://www.fma.mn

Altai center, Peace Avenue, Sukhbaatar district, POB-1386, Ulaanbaatar 15160, Mongolia

03 July, 09: Banks are bearish on USDMNT long term, but bullish for the shorter run…

2009-Jul-03

USDMNT	1 month	3 months	6 months	1 year
Mean	1,461	1,507	1,536	1,382
Median	1,460	1,493	1,518	1,413
Max	1,488	1,590	1,680	1,480
Min	1,440	1,435	1,400	1,250

A monthly survey from ACI Mongolia among analysts of the banks concluded that analysts were generally bearish on USDMNT in 1-year horizon, but were expecting the pair to go higher in the shorter period.

Following the steep fall from its highs of the region of 1700-1800, the pair was range bound for the past few months in 1420-1440 zones.

About Monthly USDMNT forecasting

ACI Mongolia’s monthly USDMNT forecasting data is collected from individual analysts of banks within 5th of every month and then distributed to public. “Analysts” refers to treasurers, dealers, traders and specialized analysts working within Treasury departments of Mongolian banks.

About ACI Mongolia

ACI Mongolia, The Financial Markets Association was established as Mongolian Financial Markets Association (formerly known as FMA or MFMA) in late 2004 upon market initiative. ACI Mongolia is now the largest professional, non-profit organization promoting best market practices in different financial markets, contributing public education and helping to improve regulatory framework. With its broad base of about 100 members, ACI Mongolia has became an affiliated national association of ACI, The Financial Markets Association, the world’s largest financial markets association based in Paris, in early 2009. ACI has its affiliated national associations in 62 countries and about 13,000 professional members working in various international financial markets.

Other Activities

• Since 2007 ACI Mongolia has been the holder of UBIBOR (Ulaanbaatar interbank offered rate), the money market benchmark rate, along with Thomson Reuters plc. As of May 2009, 15 Mongolian commercial banks were contributing to UBIBOR at 11.30 hours of each business day. The UBIBOR index is then distributed through Thomson Reuters’s extensive global information network to thousands of information platforms.
• CSI (Consumer Sentiment Index) is the first of “leading” economic indicators in Mongolia. The index is published quarterly upon surveying 500 consumers representing different sectors. A 24 question questionnaire is divided into 5 sub categories, namely a. Change in consumption behavior and the sentiment b. Inflation c. Unemployment d. Sentiment towards financial sector e. Sentiment towards state policies and agendas.
• Based on its recently established CFOCLUB, ACI Mongolia is planning to introduce Business Sentiment Index (BSI) in August of 2009. CFOCLUB is a networking platform for financial executives, financiers, CFO’s, treasurers, academia, and other professionals. The club intends to raise professional awareness of financial managers.
• ACI Mongolia publishes a full financial page (known as pink page) each day on the largest daily newspaper Unuudur.
• ACI Mongolia organizes educational trainings and seminars for public, financial institutions. ACI Mongolia also organizes free of charge seminars for journalists to promote business and finance journalism in Mongolia.
• ACI Mongolia and Education TV are currently broadcasting weekly financial education program to increase public knowledge with regard to finance and economy.

© ACI Mongolia, The Financial Markets Association, 2009. All rights reserved.